I wrote this article in LinkedIn on April 28th.  Since then there have been more changes you need to be aware of.  I will write a follow up article soon.  For now please read this.  Any and all comments are welcome too.

You may have noticed the changes happening in the world of real estate. Broker consolidation is happening, it seems, daily. The thought of a company like Coldwell Banker going out of business with over $4 billion debt is shocking. One after another are being bought creating mega brokers. Why is this happening?

I have been a full time professional Realtor for 38.5 years. In all this time, I've never seen the inventory even remotely close to as low as it's been the past 2-3 years. 2026 is only slightly better; I am projecting a 15-20% increase in the number of homes for sale this year.

Here in Bergen County, NJ (across the river from Manhattan) we have today 705 homes for sale in the New Jersey MLS. What we should have is around 3,000 or more.

Such extreme and abnormally low inventory results in correspondingly fewer transactions. We are now moving into our 4th year of this and it truly is separating out the men from the boys so to speak. Everyone knows that entities with issues survive when business is good. Strong volume covers up problems but those problems come home to roost when times are tough. That's what we're seeing now.

Residential real estate has been on an upward trend for around 13 years. During this time inventory levels were fine. The example I give people to put things into perspective is this: Imagine General Motors losing 75-80% of its customers. That's what we're seeing now.

Why is the inventory so low? When will it change? The answer is simple - we've eliminated the 2 major sources of homes on the market: the aging population and the move up buyer.

Boomers were the biggest demographic. While it's now the Milennials (as boomers have passed away), Boomers are still a large number. Because they're aging out so much later, they're staying in their homes much longer than previous generations.

The move up buyer is stuck. With mortgages at 3-4% and appreciation severely widening the gap between where they are now and where they want to go, moving up is simply unaffordable.

When will this end? The answer is over the next few years. Boomers are increasingly aging out and rates will most definitely decline. I'm projecting 3 years from now the market will be fully balanced.

As mismanaged entities struggle and fall, strong companies gobble them up. Why? Because they're gaining market share at a discount. Re/Max franchises are all over Bergen County. No one here has heard of REAL. REAL just gobbled up Re/Max. Thus the wave of consolidation that we are experiencing now.

I can still see small, independent brokerages surviving if they are niche centric. Where I am they are mostly tied to a specific ethnicity or religion and they're usually very small.

Fortunately for me, my company can't be bought. I'm with Weichert Realtors and Weichert has always been financially strong. In fact, we're doing quite well.

Undoubtedly there will be more and more consolidation in my industry. Is this a good thing? Maybe yes and maybe no. The problem with corporations buying up companies is that very often the purchaser has never done the job. Anyone who's been to business school knows all about such situations and how they imploded.

It's also very possible that if those corporate buyers know the real estate business, they elevate it. I have always said that there are too many poorly (if at all) trained and/or part time agents. I have remained with Weichert for decades because my company aspires to create successful full time professionals. While every barrel has it's rotten apples, ours are very far fewer. So, for me, if consolidation empowers companies to hold the line on demanding excellence, then it will be a very "good thing" indeed to quote Martha Stewart.